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Plos Biology : Absolute Humidity and the Seasonal Onset of Influenza in the Continental United States, Volume 8

By Ferguson, Neil M.

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Book Id: WPLBN0003940762
Format Type: PDF eBook :
File Size:
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Plos Biology : Absolute Humidity and the Seasonal Onset of Influenza in the Continental United States, Volume 8  
Author: Ferguson, Neil M.
Volume: Volume 8
Language: English
Subject: Journals, Science, Biology
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection, PLoS Biology
Publication Date:
Publisher: Plos

Description : Much of the observed wintertime increase of mortality in temperate regions is attributed to seasonal influenza. A recent reanalysis of laboratory experiments indicates that absolute humidity strongly modulates the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus. Here, we extend these findings to the human population level, showing that the onset of increased wintertime influenza-related mortality in the United States is associated with anomalously low absolute humidity levels during the prior weeks. We then use an epidemiological model, in which observed absolute humidity conditions temper influenza transmission rates, to successfully simulate the seasonal cycle of observed influenza-related mortality. The model results indicate that direct modulation of influenza transmissibility by absolute humidity alone is sufficient to produce this observed seasonality. These findings provide epidemiological support for the hypothesis that absolute humidity drives seasonal variations of influenza transmission in temperate regions.


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